This page lists peer-reviewed AMOC publications across five thematic areas: AMOC observations, AMOC variability and drivers, climate modelling, observing system design, and palaeoceanography. Use the search box or sort by author, title, or journal. Publications are sorted by year, newest first.
AMOC publications produced by EPOC are also archived on Zenodo. For context on how these connect to project research goals, see our concept and objectives page.
| Year | Authors | Title | Journal | DOI | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Wharton, J.H., Kozikowska, E., Keigwin, L.D., Marchitto, T.M., Maslin, M.A., Ziegler, M., and Thornalley, D.J.R. | Relatively warm deep-water formation persisted in the Last Glacial Maximum Sediment core data from the deep Northwest Atlantic show the glacial ocean was only about 2°C colder than today, indicating that relatively warm North Atlantic Deep Water formation persisted through the Last Glacial Maximum. | Nature | 10.1038/s41586-025-10012-2 | AMOC observations |
| 2026 | McPherson, R., von Appen, W.-J., de Steur, L., Kanzow, T., Beszczynska-Möller, A., and Renner, A.H.H. | Decades of change: Warming trends and hydrographic variability of Atlantic Water as observed in the west Spitsbergen current (1997–2024) A 28-year hydrographic record from the West Spitsbergen Current documents significant warming and salinity changes in Atlantic Water flowing into the Arctic, providing one of the longest continuous records of Arctic Atlantification. | Deep Sea Research Part II | 10.1016/j.dsr2.2026.105637 | AMOC observations |
| 2026 | McPherson, R., Lochthofen, N., Reifenberg, S.F., von Appen, W.-J., and Xi, H. | Year-round vertically resolved observations of upper ocean hydrography and biogeochemistry in the Atlantic Water inflow north of Svalbard Year-round mooring observations north of Svalbard provide vertically resolved records of Atlantic Water inflow hydrography and biogeochemistry, establishing baseline data for detecting Arctic Ocean change. | Deep Sea Research Part II | 10.1016/j.dsr2.2026.105639 | AMOC observations |
| 2025 | Calafat, F.M., Vallivattathillam, P., and Frajka-Williams, E. | Estimates of Atlantic meridional heat transport from spatiotemporal fusion of Argo, altimetry, and gravimetry data A new method combining Argo floats, satellite altimetry, and gravimetry generates continuous estimates of Atlantic meridional heat transport at multiple latitudes for 2004–2020, offering a cost-effective complement to dedicated mooring arrays. | Ocean Science | 10.5194/os-21-2743-2025 | Observing system design |
| 2025 | Fredriksen, H.-B., Eiselt, K.-U., and Good, P. | Exploring global temperature oscillations using a generalized linear box model A generalised linear box model is used to explore oscillatory patterns in global surface temperature, providing a new framework for understanding multi-timescale climate variability and its drivers. | Geophysical Research Letters | 10.1029/2024GL113994 | Climate modelling |
| 2025 | Thierry, V., Claustre, H., Pasqueron de Fommervault, O., et al. | Advancing ocean monitoring and knowledge for societal benefit: the urgency to expand Argo to OneArgo by 2030 An international community case for urgently expanding the Argo programme to OneArgo by 2030, integrating full-depth, biogeochemical, and polar observations to support climate adaptation and carbon management. | Frontiers in Marine Science | 10.3389/fmars.2025.1593904 | Observing system design |
| 2025 | Baumann, T.M., Skagseth, O., Ingvaldsen, R.B., and Mork, K.A. | Reduced Cooling in the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current: Investigating mechanisms of change from 30 years of observations A 30-year hydrographic record reveals a significant reduction in Atlantic Water cooling as it flows northward through the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current toward the Arctic, driven by declining air-sea heat fluxes and faster current advection. | Ocean Science | 10.5194/os-22-17-2026 | AMOC observations |
| 2025 | Heukamp, F.O., Wekerle, C., Kanzow, T., McPherson, R., and Baumann, T.M. | Atlantic water recirculation in the northern Barents Sea affects winter sea ice extent Ocean model simulations show that Atlantic Water recirculation in the northern Barents Sea Opening plays a previously underrecognised role in driving winter sea ice decline through its return flow into the Nordic Seas. | Nature Communications | 10.1038/s41467-025-59992-9 | Climate modelling |
| 2025 | Fox-Kemper, B., DeRepentigny, P., Treguier, A.M., Stepanek, C., O'Rourke, E., Mackallah, C., Meucci, A., Aksenov, Y., Durack, P.J., Feldl, N., Hernaman, V., Heuzé, C., Iovino, D., Madan, G., Marquez, A.L., Massonnet, F., Mecking, J., Samanta, D., Taylor, P.C., Tseng, W.-L., and Vancoppenolle, M. | CMIP7 Data Request: Ocean and Sea Ice Priorities and Opportunities A community-developed framework for ocean and sea ice output variables in CMIP7, identifying seven science-based use cases to guide model output priorities for the next generation of climate model intercomparisons. | EGUsphere (preprint) | 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3083 | Climate modelling |
| 2025 | Petit, T., Robson, J., Ferreira, D., Yeager, S., and Evans, D.G. | Coherence of the AMOC over the subpolar North Atlantic on interannual to multiannual time scales High-resolution model analysis reveals that AMOC strength at OSNAP does not directly predict mid-latitude AMOC variability, but subpolar density anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary to precede overturning changes at 45°N by about one year. | Geophysical Research Letters | 10.1029/2025GL115171 | AMOC observations |
| 2025 | Dong, B., Aksenov, Y., Colfescu, I., Harvey, B., Hirschi, J., Josey, S., Lu, H., Mecking, J., Oltmanns, M., Osprey, S., Robson, J., Rynders, S., Shaffrey, L., Sinha, B., Sutton, R., and Weisheimer, A. | Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability A comprehensive review of observed changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations over recent decades, identifying internal variability, greenhouse gas forcing, and aerosol emissions as key drivers and assessing their predictability. | Climate Dynamics | 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1 | AMOC variability & drivers |
| 2025 | Loriani, S., Aksenov, Y., Armstrong McKay, D.I., Bala, G., Born, A., Chiessi, C.M., Dijkstra, H.A., Donges, J.F., Drijfhout, S., England, M.H., Fedorov, A.V., Jackson, L.C., Kornhuber, K., Messori, G., Pausata, F.S.R., Rynders, S., Sallée, J.-B., Sinha, B., Sherwood, S.C., Swingedouw, D., and Tharammal, T. | Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations A narrative review drawing on palaeoclimate records, observations, and models finds evidence for tipping behaviour in the AMOC and Southern Ocean overturning, as well as the West African monsoon, with implications for global climate stability. | Earth System Dynamics | 10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025 | AMOC variability & drivers |
| 2025 | Dijkstra, H., Swingedouw, D., Katsman, C., Drijfhout, S., Boot, A., Spaiser, V., Aksenov, Y., Milkoreit, M., Abrams, J.F., Arthun, M., Born, A., Constantino, S., England, M., Lenton, T., Portmann, V., Ritchie, P., Rynders, S., Sinha, B., Villasante, S., van Westen, R., and Wieners, C. | Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (AMOC/SPG case study) A policy-relevant case study assessing the latest evidence on AMOC and North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre tipping risks, finding that collapse cannot be ruled out at current warming levels but that the likelihood and timescale remain uncertain. | Global Tipping Points Report 2025, University of Exeter | 10.5281/zenodo.18163977 | AMOC variability & drivers |
| 2024 | Wharton, J.H., Renoult, M., Gebbie, G., Keigwin, L.D., Marchitto, T.M., Maslin, M.A., Oppo, D.W., and Thornalley, D.J.R. | Deeper and stronger North Atlantic Gyre during the Last Glacial Maximum Sediment core records reveal that the North Atlantic subtropical gyre was significantly deeper and stronger during the Last Glacial Maximum, providing new constraints on how ocean circulation responds to large-amplitude climate changes. | Nature | 10.1038/s41586-024-07655-y | AMOC observations |
| 2024 | Kim, W.M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Zhao, A., Yeager, S., and Robson, J. | North Atlantic Response to Observed North Atlantic Oscillation Surface Heat Flux in Three Climate Models Three CMIP6-class models show a broadly consistent ocean response to NAO-associated heat flux forcing, with positive NAO conditions generating denser subpolar water masses and increasing the AMOC. | Journal of Climate | 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0301.1 | Climate modelling |
| 2024 | Zhao, A., Robson, J., Sutton, R., Lai, M.W.K., Mecking, J.V., Yeager, S., and Petit, T. | Large diversity in AMOC internal variability across NEMO-based climate models An intercomparison of six NEMO-based climate models reveals large spread in simulated AMOC internal variability, linked primarily to salinity-driven surface density contrasts in the GIN Seas and Arctic Ocean. | Climate Dynamics | 10.1007/s00382-023-07069-y | Climate modelling |
| 2024 | Fredriksen, H.-B., Eiselt, K.-U., and Good, P. | Testing linearity and comparing linear response models for global surface temperatures A methodological study testing whether global surface temperature responses to climate forcings can be represented by linear response models, comparing frameworks and examining where linearity assumptions break down. | ESS Open Archive (preprint) | 10.22541/essoar.170559496.63972629/v1 | Climate modelling |
| 2024 | Wunderling, N., von der Heydt, A.S., Aksenov, Y., Barker, S., Bastiaansen, R., Brovkin, V., Brunetti, M., Couplet, V., Kleinen, T., Lear, C.H., Lohmann, J., Roman-Cuesta, R.M., Sinet, S., Swingedouw, D., Winkelmann, R., Anand, P., Barichivich, J., Bathiany, S., Baudena, M., Bruun, J.T., Chiessi, C.M., Coxall, H.K., Docquier, D., Donges, J.F., Falkena, S.K.J., Klose, A.K., Obura, D., Rocha, J., Rynders, S., Steinert, N.J., and Willeit, M. | Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review A comprehensive review mapping interactions between major climate tipping elements including the AMOC, Greenland Ice Sheet, and Amazon rainforest, finding that cascading interactions can significantly lower individual tipping thresholds. | Earth System Dynamics | 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 | AMOC variability & drivers |
| 2024 | Spaiser, V., Juhola, S., Constantino, S.M., Guo, W., Watson, T., Sillmann, J., Craparo, A., Basel, A., Bruun, J.T., Krishnamurthy, K., Scheffran, J., Pinho, P., Okpara, U.T., Donges, J.F., Bhowmik, A., Yasseri, T., Safra de Campos, R., Cumming, G.S., Chenet, H., Krampe, F., Abrams, J.F., Dyke, J.G., Rynders, S., Aksenov, Y., and Spears, B.M. | Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization A review of negative social tipping processes including conflict, displacement, and financial destabilisation that may be triggered by Earth system destabilisation and could in turn amplify further ecological and social breakdown. | Earth System Dynamics | 10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024 | AMOC variability & drivers |
| 2023 | Chafik, L., Holliday, N.P., Bacon, S., Baker, J.A., Desbruyeres, D., Frajka-Williams, E., and Jackson, L.C. | Observed mechanisms activating the recent subpolar North Atlantic Warming since 2016 Observations show that the subpolar North Atlantic warming since 2016 is driven by increased western boundary density at the intergyre boundary, linked to enhanced buoyancy forcing associated with a strengthened North Atlantic Oscillation. | Philosophical Transactions A | 10.1098/rsta.2022.0183 | AMOC observations |
| 2023 | Buckley, M.W., Lozier, M.S., Desbruyeres, D., and Evans, D.G. | Buoyancy forcing and the subpolar Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Analysis of North Atlantic overturning in density space shows that buoyancy-driven water mass transformation in the eastern subpolar gyre dominates the AMOC, with interannual changes balanced locally rather than propagating southward to the subtropics. | Philosophical Transactions A | 10.1098/rsta.2022.0181 | AMOC variability & drivers |
| 2023 | McCarthy, G.D. and Caesar, L. | Can we trust projections of AMOC weakening based on climate models that cannot reproduce the past? A comparison of RAPID observations with CMIP5 and CMIP6 models finds that current climate models struggle to reproduce observed twentieth-century AMOC trends, raising questions about the reliability of twenty-first-century projections. | Philosophical Transactions A | 10.1098/rsta.2022.0193 | Climate modelling |
| 2023 | Robson, J., Sutton, R., Menary, M.B., and Lai, M.W.K. | Contrasting internally and externally generated Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the role for AMOC in CMIP6 historical simulations An assessment of CMIP6 historical simulations finds that the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcing in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability depends on the choice of index, with aerosol forcing playing a significant role. | Philosophical Transactions A | 10.1098/rsta.2022.0194 | AMOC variability & drivers |
| 2023 | Frajka-Williams, E., Foukal, N., and Danabasoglu, G. | Should AMOC observations continue: how and why? A review of the scientific case for continuing AMOC observations, arguing that a future system should address identified knowledge gaps, correct current observing shortcomings, and be designed to constrain ocean and climate models. | Philosophical Transactions A | 10.1098/rsta.2022.0195 | Observing system design |
| 2023 | Marotzke, J. | From theory to RAPID AMOC observations: a personal voyage of discovery A personal account of the theoretical and empirical developments that led to the establishment of the RAPID AMOC monitoring array at 26.5°N, tracing the evolution of ideas about thermohaline circulation over several decades. | Philosophical Transactions A | 10.1098/rsta.2022.0192 | AMOC observations |
| 2023 | Fortin, A., Dufour, C.O., Merlis, T.M., and Msadek, R. | Geostrophic and Mesoscale Eddy Contributions to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline under CO2 Increase in the GFDL CM2-O Model Suite In a suite of GFDL ocean models, both geostrophic and mesoscale eddy contributions drive AMOC decline under increasing CO2, with their relative importance sensitive to the horizontal resolution of the model. | Journal of Climate | 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0561.1 | Climate modelling |
| 2023 | Petit, T., Robson, J., Ferreira, D., and Jackson, L.C. | Understanding the sensitivity of the North Atlantic subpolar overturning in different resolution versions of HadGEM3-GC3.1 In three resolution versions of HadGEM3-GC3.1, the simulated subpolar AMOC is concentrated in the eastern basin consistent with OSNAP observations, but its magnitude is 25–40% too strong at medium and high resolutions due to excessive Labrador Sea salinity. | JGR: Oceans | 10.1029/2023JC019672 | Climate modelling |
| 2023 | Gutjahr, O. and Mehlmann, C. | Polar lows and their effects on sea ice and the upper ocean in the Iceland, Greenland and Labrador Seas Idealised simulations show that polar low-pressure systems in the subpolar North Atlantic significantly alter upper-ocean heat content and sea ice through enhanced mixing and wind-driven circulation. | JGR: Oceans | 10.1029/2023JC020258 | Climate modelling |
| 2023 | Wett, S., Rhein, M., Kieke, D., Mertens, C., and Moritz, M. | Meridional connectivity of a 25-year observational AMOC record at 47°N A 25-year observational AMOC record from the NOAC array at 47°N is presented and compared with the subtropical RAPID array, revealing significant meridional connectivity on interannual and longer timescales. | Geophysical Research Letters | 10.1029/2023GL103284 | AMOC observations |
| 2023 | Loriani, S., Aksenov, Y., Dijkstra, H., England, M., Fedorov, A., Messori, G., Pausata, F., Sallée, J.-B., Sinha, B., Sherwood, S., Tharammal, T., Armstrong McKay, D.I., Bala, G., Born, A., Drijfhout, S., Jackson, L., Kornhuber, K., Chiessi, C.M., Rynders, S., and Swingedouw, D. | 1.4 Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations This chapter assesses evidence for tipping points in the AMOC, North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, and Antarctic Overturning Circulation, finding that a slowdown or collapse of these systems would have far-reaching consequences for monsoons and the wider climate system. | Global Tipping Points Report 2023, University of Exeter | View chapter | AMOC variability & drivers |
| 2023 | Blockley, E.W., Aksenov, Y., Campbell, K., Hewitt, H.T., Oltmanns, M., Screen, J.A., and Tsamados, M. | Impacts of Climate Change on Arctic Sea Ice A comprehensive assessment of observed and projected changes in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness, reviewing satellite records showing continued decline and their implications for climate, ecosystems, and mid-latitude weather patterns. | MCCIP Science Review 2023 | 10.14465/2023.reu12.ice | AMOC variability & drivers |
| 2022 | Bacon, S., Naveira Garabato, A.C., Aksenov, Y., Brown, N.J., and Tsubouchi, T. | Arctic Ocean boundary exchanges: A review A review of volume, heat, and freshwater exchanges through the four oceanic gateways of the Arctic Ocean, synthesising observations and model estimates to assess the role of boundary fluxes in the Arctic-Atlantic climate system. | Oceanography | 10.5670/oceanog.2022.133 | AMOC observations |